Working papers

US-China trade: From the Cold War to the Trade War
A combination of “Trade War and Peace” and “Trade Policy Dynamics”
Slides // Non-technical slides

Trade War and Peace (February 2024) // Slides
with G. Alessandria, S. Khan, A. Khederlarian, and J. Steinberg
NBER Working Paper #32150 // The Economist

The Aggregate Impact of Antidumping Policy (April 2014, preliminary)

The International Elasticity Puzzle (March 2008)


Publications

Trade Policy Dynamics (January 2024) // Appendix // Slides // Repo
with G. Alessandria, S. Khan, A. Khederlarian, and J. Steinberg
The VoxChina version // NBER Working Paper #29122
Accepted, Journal of Political Economy

The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022 // Slides // Repo
with G. Alessandria, S. Khan, A. Khederlarian, and C. Mix // NBER Working Paper #30849
2023: International Seminar on Macroeconomics, Journal of International Economics, 146, 103788.

Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth (September 2020) // Slides // Repo
   with J. Asturias, S. Hur, and T. Kehoe // NBER Working Paper #23202
2023: AEJ: Macroeconomics 15 (1), pp. 48–105.

Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement (January 2022) // Appendix // Slides // Repo
   with F. Guvenen, R. Mataloni, and D. Rassier // NBER Working Paper #23324
2022: American Economic Review, 112 (6), pp. 1848–84.
   In the context of tax reform: Kevin Hassett // WSJ // Bloomberg
   Other: WSJ // WSJ // CNBC // Bloomberg // Equitable Growth Blog 
   The Vox version // The NBER Digest version // WSJ

Trade Adjustment Dynamics and the Welfare Gains from Trade (February 2021) // Slides // Repo
   with G. Alessandria and H. Choi // NBER Working Paper #20663
2021: Journal of International Economics, 131, pp. 1034–58.

Firm Dynamics and Trade (August 2020) // Slides // Appendix // Condensed reading list
with G. Alessandria and C. Arkolakis // NBER Working Paper #27934
2021: Annual Review of Economics, 13 (1), pp. 253–280.

Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States // Slides 
   with T. Kehoe and J. Steinberg // NBER Working Paper #19339
   2018: Journal of Political Economy, 126 (1), pp. 761–796.
   Related Minneapolis FRB policy paper // A review of this work in The Region

New Exporter Dynamics // Slides
   with J. Willis
   2017: International Economic Review, 58 (3), pp. 703–725 

The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms // Slides
   with J. Asturias, S. Hur, and T. Kehoe // NBER Working Paper #21840
   2016: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 72 (1), pp. 45–66

The Opportunity Costs of Entrepreneurs in International Trade
   with T. Kehoe and P. Pujolas // NBER Working Paper #22514
   2016: Economics Letters, 146 (1), pp 1–3

Intrafirm Trade and Vertical Fragmentation in U.S. Multinational Corporations
   with N. Ramondo and V. Rappoport // NBER Working Paper #21472
   2016: Journal of International Economics, 99 (1), pp. 51–59
   Appendix // The VoxEU version

Using the New Goods Margin to Predict the Industry-level Impact of Trade Reform
   with T. Kehoe and J. Rossbach // NBER Working Paper #19692
   2015: Journal of International Economics 96 (2), pp. 289–297

How Well is U.S. Intrafirm Trade Measured? // Slides
   2015:  American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 105 (5), pp. 524–529
   Long version: An Overview of U.S. Intrafirm-trade Data Sources
   Related party trade press releases, 1992-1997 

How Important is the New Goods Margin in International Trade? | Slides
   with T. Kehoe
   2013: Journal of Political Economy 121 (2), pp. 358–392

The Proximity-Concentration Tradeoff under Uncertainty
   with N. Ramondo and V. Rappoport
   2013: Review of Economic Studies 80 (4), pp. 1582–1621

Trade Dynamics under Policy Uncertainty
   2011: American Journal of Agricultural Economics: Papers and Proceedings 93 (2), pp. 450–456

Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth? 
   with T. Kehoe
   2010: Journal of Economic Literature 84 (4), pp. 1005–1027
   The VoxEU version // WSJ Real Time Economics // The Atlantic blog

   Reprinted as: ¿Por Qué Las Reformas Económicas de México No Han Generado Crecimiento?
   2011: El Trimestre Económico 78(3), pp. 491–523.

Sudden Stops, Sectoral Reallocations, and the Real Exchange Rate
   with T. Kehoe
   2009: Journal of Development Economics 89 (2), pp. 235–249
   From Gonzalo Fernandez de Cordoba Martoslecture notes // programs

Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?
   with T. Kehoe
   2005: Review of Economic Dynamics 11 (4), pp. 804–819
   A review of this work in The Region.

Recent Great Depressions: Aggregate Growth in New Zealand and Switzerland
   with T. Kehoe
   2003: New Zealand Economic Papers 37 (1), pp. 5–40


Comments, book chapters, etc.

Multinational Profit Shifting and Measures throughout Economic Accounts
   with J. Bruner and D. Rassier // NBER Working Paper #24915
2023: in The Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts.
eds: N. Ahmad, B. Moulton, J.D. Richardson, and P. van de Ven. Vol 81, Studies in Income and Wealth. University
of Chicago Press, pp. 153–205.

Comment on: "The Growth of Multinational Firms in the Great Recession"  // Slides
   2017: Journal of Monetary Economics (Carnegie-Rochester-NYU), 85, pp. 65–68

Modeling Great Depressions: the Depression in Finland in the 1990s
   with J.C. Conesa and T. Kehoe
   2007: in Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century. 
   eds. T.J. Kehoe and E.C. Prescott. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, pp. 427–475

Is Switzerland in a Great Depression?
   with T. Kehoe
   2005: Review of Economic Dynamics 8 (3), pp. 759–775