Working papers
US-China trade: From the Cold War to the Trade War
A combination of “Trade War and Peace” and “Trade Policy Dynamics”
Slides // Non-technical slides
Trade War and Peace (February 2024)
with G. Alessandria, S. Khan, A. Khederlarian, and J. Steinberg
NBER Working Paper #32150 // The Economist
Trade Policy Dynamics (January 2024) // Slides
with G. Alessandria, S. Khan, A. Khederlarian, and J. Steinberg
The VoxChina version // NBER Working Paper #29122
Revision requested, Journal of Political Economy
The Aggregate Impact of Antidumping Policy (April 2014, preliminary)
The International Elasticity Puzzle (March 2008)
Publications
The Aggregate Effects of Global and Local Supply Chain Disruptions: 2020–2022 // Slides // Repo
with G. Alessandria, S. Khan, A. Khederlarian, and C. Mix // NBER Working Paper #30849
2023: International Seminar on Macroeconomics, Journal of International Economics, 146, 103788.
Firm Entry and Exit and Aggregate Growth (September 2020) // Slides // Repo
with J. Asturias, S. Hur, and T. Kehoe // NBER Working Paper #23202
2023: AEJ: Macroeconomics 15 (1), pp. 48–105.
Offshore Profit Shifting and Aggregate Measurement (January 2022) // Appendix // Slides // Repo
with F. Guvenen, R. Mataloni, and D. Rassier // NBER Working Paper #23324
2022: American Economic Review, 112 (6), pp. 1848–84.
In the context of tax reform: Kevin Hassett // WSJ // Bloomberg
Other: WSJ (op-ed) // WSJ (article) // CNBC // Bloomberg // Equitable Growth Blog
The Vox version // The NBER Digest version // WSJ
Trade Adjustment Dynamics and the Welfare Gains from Trade (February 2021) // Slides // Repo
with G. Alessandria and H. Choi // NBER Working Paper #20663
2021: Journal of International Economics, 131, pp. 1034–58.
Firm Dynamics and Trade (August 2020) // Slides // Appendix // Condensed reading list
with G. Alessandria and C. Arkolakis // NBER Working Paper #27934
2021: Annual Review of Economics, 13 (1), pp. 253–280.
Global Imbalances and Structural Change in the United States // Slides
with T. Kehoe and J. Steinberg // NBER Working Paper #19339
2018: Journal of Political Economy, 126 (1), pp. 761–796.
Related Minneapolis FRB policy paper // A review of this work in The Region
New Exporter Dynamics // Slides
with J. Willis
2017: International Economic Review, 58 (3), pp. 703–725
The Interaction and Sequencing of Policy Reforms // Slides
with J. Asturias, S. Hur, and T. Kehoe // NBER Working Paper #21840
2016: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 72 (1), pp. 45–66
The Opportunity Costs of Entrepreneurs in International Trade
with T. Kehoe and P. Pujolas // NBER Working Paper #22514
2016: Economics Letters, 146 (1), pp 1–3
Intrafirm Trade and Vertical Fragmentation in U.S. Multinational Corporations
with N. Ramondo and V. Rappoport // NBER Working Paper #21472
2016: Journal of International Economics, 99 (1), pp. 51–59
Appendix // The VoxEU version
Using the New Goods Margin to Predict the Industry-level Impact of Trade Reform
with T. Kehoe and J. Rossbach // NBER Working Paper #19692
2015: Journal of International Economics 96 (2), pp. 289–297
How Well is U.S. Intrafirm Trade Measured? // Slides
2015: American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings 105 (5), pp. 524–529
Long version: An Overview of U.S. Intrafirm-trade Data Sources
Related party trade press releases, 1992-1997
How Important is the New Goods Margin in International Trade? | Slides
with T. Kehoe
2013: Journal of Political Economy 121 (2), pp. 358–392
The Proximity-Concentration Tradeoff under Uncertainty
with N. Ramondo and V. Rappoport
2013: Review of Economic Studies 80 (4), pp. 1582–1621
Trade Dynamics under Policy Uncertainty
2011: American Journal of Agricultural Economics: Papers and Proceedings 93 (2), pp. 450–456
Why Have Economic Reforms in Mexico Not Generated Growth?
with T. Kehoe
2010: Journal of Economic Literature 84 (4), pp. 1005–1027
The VoxEU version // WSJ Real Time Economics // The Atlantic blog
Reprinted as: ¿Por Qué Las Reformas Económicas de México No Han Generado Crecimiento?
2011: El Trimestre Económico 78(3), pp. 491–523.
Sudden Stops, Sectoral Reallocations, and the Real Exchange Rate
with T. Kehoe
2009: Journal of Development Economics 89 (2), pp. 235–249
From Gonzalo Fernandez de Cordoba Martos: lecture notes // programs
Are Shocks to the Terms of Trade Shocks to Productivity?
with T. Kehoe
2005: Review of Economic Dynamics 11 (4), pp. 804–819
A review of this work in The Region.
Recent Great Depressions: Aggregate Growth in New Zealand and Switzerland
with T. Kehoe
2003: New Zealand Economic Papers 37 (1), pp. 5–40
Comments, book chapters, etc.
Multinational Profit Shifting and Measures throughout Economic Accounts
with J. Bruner and D. Rassier // NBER Working Paper #24915
2023: in The Challenges of Globalization in the Measurement of National Accounts.
eds: N. Ahmad, B. Moulton, J.D. Richardson, and P. van de Ven. Vol 81, Studies in Income and Wealth. University
of Chicago Press, pp. 153–205.
Comment on: "The Growth of Multinational Firms in the Great Recession" // Slides
2017: Journal of Monetary Economics (Carnegie-Rochester-NYU), 85, pp. 65–68
Modeling Great Depressions: the Depression in Finland in the 1990s
with J.C. Conesa and T. Kehoe
2007: in Great Depressions of the Twentieth Century.
eds. T.J. Kehoe and E.C. Prescott. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, pp. 427–475
Is Switzerland in a Great Depression?
with T. Kehoe
2005: Review of Economic Dynamics 8 (3), pp. 759–775